Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

Taleb says that Silver’s probabilities would make him a target for arbitrage if they gave the price he would offer on an election bet. In the 1930s, the Italian statistician and actuary Bruno de Finetti noticed something interesting about these kinds of bets: In order to avoid arbitrage, the prices must obey the same equations as the mathematical rules of probability, meaning such relationships as Price[A] + Price[NOT A] = 1, and so on. Taleb’s real discomfort with Silver’s bouncing probabilities is less about arbitrage than it is about the relationship between past and future volatility.

Source: m.nautil.us