Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium

The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent and in recent decades, rising temperatures have led to accelerated mass loss. We pair an outlet glacier–resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland’s contribution to sea level over the next millennium. Depending on the emission scenario, the Greenland Ice Sheet will have lost 8 to 25% (RCP 2.6), 26 to 57% (RCP 4.5), or 72 to 100% (RCP 8.5) of its present-day mass, contributing 0.59 to 1.88 m, 1.86 to 4.17 m, or 5.23 to 7.28 m to global mean sea level, respectively, where ranges refer to the 16th and 84th percentiles (Fig. 1B and Table 1).

Source: advances.sciencemag.org